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FIRE — years to independence

Your FI number is annual spending divided by the withdrawal rate. The big figure is how many years of saving until the portfolio hits that line.

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Portfolio vs FI line

The crossing is when work becomes optional in this model.

Progress to the FI number

What you already have versus what is still required.

How this FIRE calculator works

Financial independence, in this model, is a stock of invested assets large enough that a chosen withdrawal rate covers this year’s spending. The FI number is annual spending divided by the withdrawal rate. At 4% and $50,000 of spending, you need $1,250,000. At 3.5% you need more; at 5% you need less and take more sequence-of-returns risk.

Each year we add your monthly savings, apply the real return you typed, and stop when the portfolio crosses the FI line. “Real return” already nets out inflation, so spending stays in today’s dollars. The chart is a straight-line sketch: no recessions, no job loss, no Social Security, no pension. That is why the big number is labeled in years, not as a promise that work becomes optional on a calendar date.

The Trinity-study 4% rule used a 30-year retirement and a stock/bond mix that survived most U.S. historical windows. People aiming to retire at 40 may need a 50-year horizon, a cash buffer, or the willingness to cut spending after a bad decade. Use this page to see whether your savings rate even points at the right decade — then read a full plan with a professional if the number is life-changing.

FAQ

Is the 4% rule a guarantee?

No. It is a historical planning shortcut. Future returns, inflation, and your spending flexibility matter more than any single percentage. Lower the withdrawal rate if you want a thicker cushion.

Does this include Social Security or a pension?

No. If those will cover part of spending, reduce the annual-spend input by that amount so the FI number is only what the portfolio must cover.

Why is “still to save” not the same as FI minus today’s balance?

Future contributions grow. The gap shown is a rough remaining need in today’s dollars, not a bank-deposit target you must write a check for tomorrow.